Are Used Car Prices Going Down? Chicago Market Update for Late 2026
Updated: 6 days ago
Quick Answer: Yes, slightly. Wholesale used car prices fell below year-ago levels in September 2026 for the first time this year, and Cox Automotive now expects them to finish 2026 up only about 0.2%. Gas-guzzling trucks and SUVs are dropping fastest, while fuel-efficient cars and used EVs are holding value or rising.
Where Used Car Prices Stand Right Now
If you have been waiting for used car prices to cool off, the fall of 2026 is the first real sign of it. After a strong spring, the market has changed direction.
In March 2026, wholesale prices hit their highest level since summer 2023, with the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index up 6.2% year over year. Tax refunds, tight inventory and new-car prices near $50,000 pushed more shoppers into the used market.
By September, the picture flipped. The Manheim Index came in at 205.9, down 0.6% from a year earlier. It was the first year-over-year drop of 2026 and only the second in almost two years.
Period | What happened to wholesale used prices |
March 2026 | Highest level since mid-2023, up 6.2% YoY |
Mid-August 2026 | Nearly even with a year earlier |
September 2026 | Down 0.6% YoY, first annual drop of the year |
2026 full-year forecast | Up about 0.2%, below the 2.3% long-term average |
Why Prices Are Softening
1. Record gas prices are hitting big vehicles
The national average for regular gas was $4.36 on October 8, 2026, the highest it has ever been for this time of year. That has changed what buyers want. Cox Automotive found that non-EV vehicles getting under 15 mpg lost about 15% of their wholesale value, and those getting 15 to 19 mpg lost about 8.8%.
2. Higher interest rates are squeezing budgets
The average used car loan carried about an 11.2% APR in Q2 2026, according to Experian. Higher monthly payments push some shoppers to wait, which cools demand.
3. Fall is normally a slower season
Used car demand typically peaks in spring with tax refunds and slows in late fall. October usually brings the strongest depreciation of the year.
What This Means for Chicago Buyers
Not every vehicle is getting cheaper. Here is how the market is splitting:
Full-size trucks and large SUVs: The best negotiating room in years. If you need a truck for work, this fall is a good window.
Compact cars and hybrids: Prices are holding firm because fuel-efficient cars are in demand.
Used EVs: Values rose about 12% year over year through mid-2026. Do not expect bargains here.
Older budget cars under $10,000: Still tight. Affordable inventory remains scarce across Chicago.
If you are trading in a big SUV, expect a lower offer than you would have gotten in spring. If you are trading in a small car or hybrid, your trade is worth more than you might think. See our guide on getting the most for your trade-in.
Is Now a Good Time to Buy a Used Car?
For most Chicago buyers, late fall and early winter are a solid time to buy:
Dealers want to move inventory before the holidays and the January slowdown.
Wholesale prices are flat to slightly down, so retail prices have room to soften.
You get ahead of the tax-refund rush, which usually pushes prices up again from February to April.
The one risk is interest rates. A lower price can be wiped out by a higher APR, so get pre-approved or compare offers before you shop. Our used car loan rates guide breaks down what to expect by credit score.
Will Used Car Prices Drop More in 2027?
Cox Automotive economists call fuel prices the biggest wild card heading into 2027. If gas prices fall, demand could pick up and support prices. If they stay high, consumer confidence may keep slipping, which would pressure prices further, especially on trucks and SUVs. Either way, nobody is forecasting a crash. Waiting months for a big drop is a gamble.
How to Shop Smart in This Market
Compare at least three similar vehicles on price per mile, not just sticker price.
Check the car's fuel economy and estimate your yearly gas cost at $4+ per gallon.
Insist on an inspection. Every vehicle at Outlaw Motor Co passes a 120-point inspection before it hits the lot.
Watch for add-on fees that cancel out a good price. Read our post on hidden dealer fees.
Frequently Asked Questions
Are used car prices going down in 2026?
Yes, modestly. Wholesale prices fell below 2025 levels in September 2026, and the full-year gain is projected at only about 0.2%.
Which used cars are dropping in price the most?
Vehicles with poor fuel economy. Models under 15 mpg lost around 15% of their wholesale value in 2026 as gas prices climbed.
Is it better to buy a used car now or wait until spring?
Now is usually better. Spring brings tax refunds and higher demand, which tends to push prices up.
Are used EVs getting cheaper?
No. Used EV values rose about 12% year over year through mid-2026 because high gas prices increased demand.
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